Number crunching (Sort of)

Yet another follow up to Presient Cripe’s blog post about the looming (already here) pastor surplus.

According to the “What a way” campaign, we will need 250-300 pastors per year to fill the void left by retiring pastors.  Of course, that statistic is from the admissions office, so a grain of salt is required.

President Cripe (who has no real dog in the fight one way or another, other than to tell it like he sees it) suggests that upward of 40% of parishes would be unable to support a full-time pastor.

This means that, in the next generation or so, we will see 2400 non-calling vacancies.  His post suggests that we might reach this number in 20 years or so (He says it is already happening on a small scale today, and he should know.)  That means that we will gain 2000 non-calling vacancies in the next 20 years, or roughly one hundred per year.

So, if you subtract the 100 per year from the 250-300 that the seminary Admissions office says we need, you have roughly 150-200 pastors needed annually.   For the first yerar, the SMP program was limited to 80 total admissions between the seminary.  So nearly half the needed pastors are being supplied from the SMP program.  The other 100 graduates are available from Saint Louis alone in a slow year.  Fort Wayne doesn’t even enter the equation.   This means that, if current conditions continue, we have absolutely no need for a second seminary.  It is simply no longer justifiable.  I think we must do all we can to keep the seminaries.  I just don’t see that in the future the current set up will remain viable.

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2 Responses to “Number crunching (Sort of)”

  1. Dennis Voss Says:

    Perhaps what we don’t need is SMP. Perhaps that heresy, but that’s what I believe.

    • I am shocked you would suggest that we would get rid of a program that allows pastors to serve with virtually no training at all. What sort of monster are you? What about the children? WHAT ABOUT THE CHILDREN!!!!!!

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