Oil, Islam, and the West

For about 1000 years, Islam was stuck in the middle east and North Africa.  Lovely for filming scenes of Tatooine, but not a lot of good for anything else.  For those 1000 years, there was little economic (or any other kind of ) progress in the world of Islam.   Of course, for most of those thousand years there wasn’t any real economic progress in any other part of the world either.

Now, the Arab states are selling oil to the wealthy West.  We are buying oil, and sending our money to them.  They have had much economic progress, but it is entirely dependent on sales of oil.  When is the last time you bought something (besides gas for your car) that was “Made in <any middle eastern country>”?

Eventually the oil will run out.  When that happens, it doesn’t matter if Iran has a hundred nuclear bombs.  They won’t be able to afford the batteries to turn them on.  Of course, nuclear power could help turn them on, but (the ironic part) they won’t be able to afford the fuel for rockets or planes to deliver them.  They won’t be able to afford the military to maintain them.  They won’t even be able to afford the food to feed the guys who will loft them at Israel.  In Iran Oil accounts for 80% of exports.  In Saudi Arabia it’s 90%.

Someday the oil will run out.  When it does, there will be no economy to speak of in the Middle East.  At current levels, about 75 years or so will drain the Middle East of oil.  So, the faster we use the oil, the faster the Middle East is of no strategic important whatsoever. One might think that this would be a long term solution to the problem of radical Islam.  But it isn’t.  Because the other great export from the Middle East is people.  Europe will likely be majority Muslim by 2050.  This means that when the oil runs out, Islam will already have moved its base of operations to Europe, Canada and the US.  The only bright spot for the Middle East is that Mecca and Media will become a tourist destination for a newly Muslimized West.

Have a nice day.

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